As a Mission Viejo local serving all of Orange County, I've spent this Monday morning reviewing the freshest MLS data and chatting with sellers prepping listings. Early February 2026 brings a noticeable pivot: inventory up 13% from January, mortgage rates dipping to 6-6.5%, and buyer demand heating up, especially for attached homes.[1] This isn't a full-blown frenzy, but a balanced reset creating real openings for families eyeing spots like our lakefront townhomes or Irvine condos.
Let's dive into the numbers driving decisions right now, from pricing stability to infrastructure wins boosting values countywide.
Sales Surge in Attached Homes, Detached Homes Hold Firm
Attached properties—think condos and townhomes—are leading the charge with a 41.4% year-over-year sales increase.[1] First-time buyers and empty-nesters love the lower entry points in Dana Point or Irvine, where maintenance is minimal and amenities abound. In Mission Viejo, these lake-adjacent units are moving fast, blending community vibes with easy access to Oso Parkway.
Detached single-family homes? A steadier 1.6% sales rise, but demand remains bulletproof for yards, schools, and privacy in Aliso Viejo or Lake Forest.[1] Here at home, gated enclaves in Mission Viejo draw relocators fleeing coastal premiums, keeping values firm. Families prioritize these for the long haul, and with tech jobs spilling over from Irvine, competition stays keen.
This divide caters to every buyer profile: leverage attached options for affordability now, or target detached for enduring lifestyle perks.[1]
Inventory Eases, But Don't Blink—Supply Still Tight
Countywide active listings climbed 13% mid-January, reaching levels unseen since 2020, though we're far from the old 4,600-home benchmark.[1][2] Irvine's at 684 listings, up 31.61% year-over-year, pushing supply to 2.6-3 months.[1] Days on market hit 41 for both attached and detached, a 29.2% jump, with expected time stretching to 101 days this month.[1]
Yet some pockets buck the trend. Mission Viejo's down to under 80 single-family homes—less than two months' supply—fueling quick contracts like one Lake Mission Viejo listing I closed in 48 hours last week.[3] South Coast Metro and coastal luxury hold low inventory, keeping pressure on premium segments.[2] Buyers, your window peaks now before a potential 70% demand spike by mid-March tightens things again.[1]
For sellers in Mission Viejo or Laguna Niguel, this means strategic pricing captures spring momentum without overextending.
Rates Drop Unlocks Demand, Affordability Improves Slightly
The game-changer? Rates easing to 6-6.5%, a full point off peaks, letting buyers qualify for more house.[1][2] Activity jumped 2% in the past two weeks, pulling in sidelined first-timers for Yorba Linda townhomes or upsizers in Newport.[1] Median list prices hover around $1.28 million countywide, up 5.2% year-over-year, with Mission Viejo at $1.15 million—a 6% gain driven by resort-style appeal.[3]
Laguna Niguel stabilizes near $1.45 million, favoring right-sized estates for multi-gen families.[2] Newport Beach luxury medians near $5.9 million show moderate seller edges, but buyers demand turn-key readiness.[2] Overall, we're shifting to equilibrium: no crash, just normalization after years of sprinting.[2][4]
Affordability edges up for mid-range buyers, but coastal scarcity keeps high-end resilient.
Infrastructure and Developments Amp Up Appeal
Orange County's investing big, directly lifting property values. The $2.5 billion OC Streetcar accelerates, with Phase 1 track-laying underway in Santa Ana, connecting to LAX and boosting Tustin-Irvine commuters.[1][3] Garden Grove spots near the line jumped 7% last quarter—imagine the ripple to eastern OC families.[3]
In Mission Viejo, Oso Parkway upgrades cut commute times to Irvine tech hubs, a boon for working parents.[1] O'Neill Regional Park's 200-acre expansion adds trails and equestrian paths, premiuming nearby homes by 4-6%.[3] Irvine's Great Park multifamily eases single-family strain without flooding the market.[1]
Anaheim Hills eyes gradual inventory growth toward balance, with educated buyers snapping priced-right homes.[4] These upgrades make OC irresistible, sustaining demand through 2026's projected 2-4% appreciation.[1]
Challenges persist: new construction lags, beach-zip inventory trails, and rates could fluctuate.[1][3] But our economic base—tech, tourism, jobs—supports steady flow.
From Mission Viejo's hills to Newport's shores, early 2026 favors prepared buyers grabbing inventory while it's here, and sharp sellers pricing for quick wins. I've got clients touring this week—attached homes offer negotiation room, detached command premiums. Whether upgrading in Laguna Niguel or downsizing lakeside, timing feels right.
Ready to chat your next move? Markets shift fast, especially Mondays like this.
