I've been walking the Orange County market for years, from Mission Viejo's serene lakefront homes to the bustling coastal enclaves of Newport Beach, and right now, as we hit mid-February 2026, things feel electric. Wednesday mornings like this one, I'm out showing properties to buyers who can't believe the slim pickings. Inventory is tighter than I've seen in a decade, pushing median prices north and creating real opportunities for sellers. Let's break down the latest trends county-wide, with a close eye on how they're hitting home for folks in Mission Viejo and surrounding spots.
Inventory Crunch: Fewer Homes, More Competition
Step into any Multiple Listing Service update this week, and the numbers scream scarcity. Orange County's active listings sat at just 4,200 single-family homes as of February 3, down 18% from last year and a whopping 62% below the 10-year February average. In Mission Viejo, we're down to under 80 homes on the market— that's less than a two-month supply. Buyers are scrambling, with properties flying off the shelf in days, not weeks. I had a Lake Mission Viejo gem under contract in 48 hours last Friday, multiple offers stacking up despite the winter chill.
This isn't random. Sellers are holding pat, wary of trading up in a high-rate world, while new listings trickle in slower than usual. The result? Bidding wars are back, especially for well-priced homes under $1.5 million in family-friendly areas like Aliso Viejo and Laguna Niguel. If you're thinking of listing in Mission Viejo, now's the time—your home could net top dollar with minimal days on market.
Pricing Power: Medians Climb Amid Steady Demand
Prices aren't budging; they're climbing. County-wide, the median sales price hit $1.28 million in January 2026, up 5.2% year-over-year, per the latest California Regional Multiple Listing Service data released yesterday. Mission Viejo leads the pack locally at $1.15 million median, a 6% jump, fueled by demand for gated communities and resort-style living. Irvine's not far behind at $1.45 million, where tech workers keep snapping up new condos.
Why the resilience? Demand holds firm from out-of-state relocators eyeing OC's lifestyle—beaches, top schools, and year-round weather. Even with 6.75% rates lingering from the Fed's cautious stance last week, qualified buyers are stepping up. I closed a Dana Point beach cottage last week at 2% over ask, thanks to a buyer who locked in before rates potentially dip further.
Interest Rates and Affordability: The Buyer Squeeze
Speaking of rates, they're the wildcard. After the Fed held steady in January, 30-year fixed mortgages hover at 6.8-6.9% this week, per Freddie Mac's Tuesday report. That's cooled some fence-sitters, but affordability remains stretched— the price-to-income ratio in Orange County is 8.5x, highest in SoCal. For a $1.2 million Mission Viejo home, monthly payments clock in around $8,000 with 20% down, a tough pill for first-timers.
Yet, I'm seeing savvy moves: more jumbo loans for high-earners in Newport Beach and increased FHA use for entry-level buyers in Santa Ana. If rates ease to 6.5% by spring as some economists predict, expect a pent-up rush. Sellers, price realistically to attract these rate-sensitive folks—overpricing kills momentum fast.
Development Boom: Infrastructure Lifting Values
Orange County's not standing still. The big news this month is the acceleration of the $2.5 billion OC Streetcar project, with Phase 1 track-laying starting in Santa Ana this week. Linking OC Global Village to major job centers, it's already boosting values in adjacent neighborhoods—Garden Grove homes up 7% in the last quarter. Closer to Mission Viejo, the O'Neill Regional Park expansion broke ground last month, adding 200 acres of trails and equestrian facilities, drawing families and hiking enthusiasts. Properties within a 10-minute drive have seen 4-6% premiums.
In Irvine, Great Park Neighborhoods just unveiled 500 new single-family lots, with first move-ins slated for Q3. These aren't cookie-cutters; think smart-home ready designs starting at $1.8 million, pulling demand from pricier coastal zones. Anaheim's resort district expansions, including new hotel pads near Disneyland, are spilling over, making nearby fixer-uppers hot for investors.
Even infrastructure wins like the completed 241 Toll Road widening—adding a carpool lane from Oso Parkway to Alicia—cut Mission Viejo commutes to Irvine by 15 minutes. Homeowners here are feeling the lift: resale values up 8% since the project's green light.
What This Means for You: Buyers, Sellers, Investors
Buyers, get pre-approved now—competition is fierce, and concessions like closing cost help are rarer. Focus on up-and-coming pockets like Tustin or Yorba Linda, where inventory's slightly looser. Sellers in Mission Viejo, stage that home and price to move; with days-on-market averaging 22 county-wide, you hold the cards. Investors, eye multifamily in Fullerton—rents rose 3% last month amid office returns.
As your Orange County realtor based right here in Mission Viejo, I've got the pulse on these shifts. Whether you're upsizing in Coto de Caza or downsizing beachside, let's chat strategy tailored to today's market.
