As we hit this Friday in early February 2026, Orange County's housing market is buzzing with opportunity. Lower mortgage rates around 6-6.5%, a 13% inventory increase from January, and rekindled buyer demand are creating a genuine window for buyers—especially in family-friendly spots like Mission Viejo.[1][2]
I've been out showing properties all week from Laguna Niguel to Irvine, and the energy is palpable. Buyers who sat out higher rates last year are qualifying for more home now, while sellers gain from stabilizing prices and infrastructure perks boosting appeal. Let's break down the key trends shaping decisions across the county.
Sales Heat Up: Attached Homes Lead, Detached Hold Steady
Sales activity is picking up steam, with attached homes like condos and townhomes surging 41.4% year-over-year. These options draw first-timers and downsizers to more affordable entry points in high-demand areas such as Irvine and Dana Point.[1] In Mission Viejo, townhomes near the lake offer that perfect blend of low maintenance and community access, pulling in buyers tired of big-yard upkeep.
Detached single-family homes show a more measured 1.6% sales bump year-over-year, but demand stays rock-solid.[1] Families prioritize yards, privacy, and top schools in places like Aliso Viejo or Lake Forest. Here in Mission Viejo, these properties in gated enclaves continue to attract relocators from pricier coastal zones, holding their value amid the shift.
This split highlights a market catering to varied needs: affordability for some, lifestyle for others. If you're eyeing a move, attached homes give leverage now, while detached gems in prime zips move fastest.[1][2]
Prices Cool Slightly, Setting Up Modest Gains
Median prices for detached homes landed at $1,400,000, down 5.7% from last year, with attached properties following a similar softening.[1] Regional data echoes this, with Southern California values at $854,993 in December—the lowest since March 2024.[1] In Laguna Niguel, medians stabilize around $1.45 million, favoring "right-sized" estates for multi-generational families.[4]
This isn't a downturn; it's equilibrium after years of rapid climbs. More mid-range listings mean buyers negotiate better deals, but long-term appreciation looks solid at 2-4% for 2026.[1][3] Mission Viejo's rolling hills and low turnover in established neighborhoods position them to outperform, especially with local upgrades drawing tech workers from Irvine hubs.
Forecasts agree: neither a buyer's nor seller's rout, but balanced conditions where prepared folks thrive.[3] Coastal luxury segments hover with medians near $5.9 million, but moderate seller advantages persist for well-priced homes.[4]
Inventory Climbs, Giving Buyers Breathing Room
Inventory rose 13% in mid-January, hitting levels not seen since 2020—though still shy of the old 4,600-home norm.[1][2] Active listings in Irvine alone stand at 684, up 31.61% year-over-year, with county supply at 2.6-3 months.[5] Days on market stretched to 41 for both attached and detached, up 29.2% from last year, and expected market time hit 101 days this month.[1][2]
Seasonal factors play in: post-holiday relists meet returning buyers, but demand could spike 70% by mid-March, slashing times like last year's 22-day drop.[2] South Coast Metro sees gradual inventory growth amid 5.9-6.3% rates, fostering stability.[7] For Mission Viejo sellers, list now to ride spring momentum; buyers, selection peaks before competition heats up.
One caveat: premium detached homes near beaches erode faster, with some reports noting an 18% year-over-year inventory dip in hot segments.[2] Overall, this tilt favors shoppers without crashing seller equity.
Rates Drop, Demand Rebounds—Affordability Edges Up
The big catalyst? Mortgage rates easing to 6-6.5%, down a full point from peaks, unlocking budgets for first-timers in Yorba Linda townhomes or upsizers in Newport enclaves.[1][2][7] Buyer activity jumped 2% in the last two weeks alone, signaling an early spring surge.[2]
This affordability lift pulls sidelined folks back, especially with OC's biotech, tourism, and tech jobs steady. In my showings, clients stretch further into Mission Viejo's serene settings or Tustin's emerging spots, where connectivity improvements amplify value.
Developments and Infrastructure Lift Values
Local projects supercharge this momentum. Irvine's Great Park multifamily adds rentals and attached stock, easing single-family pressure without oversupply.[1] The OC Streetcar extension advances, linking LAX to coastal areas and boosting eastern OC like Tustin and Irvine.[1]
Closer to home, Mission Viejo's Oso Parkway upgrades smooth traffic to Irvine tech centers, a win for commuters and families.[1] South Coast Metro's stability draws investors, while Laguna Niguel's family estates gain from multi-gen trends.[4][7] These enhancements sustain demand, making now ideal for sellers leveraging lifestyle perks.
Challenges remain: inventory trails historic highs in beach-close zips, and new construction lags.[1][3] Yet economic footing in OC supports steady flow.
Orange County's market tips buyer-friendly short-term but rewards positioned sellers long-term. From Mission Viejo's lakeside charm to countywide vibrancy, 2026 shapes up strong. Buyers, grab this window; sellers, price sharp for quick wins.
