As we wrap up this Friday in early February 2026, Orange County's housing market feels alive with fresh momentum. I've spent the week driving from Mission Viejo showings to Irvine previews, and the shift is real: mortgage rates dipping to 6-6.5%, inventory up 13% from January, and buyer demand firing back up. This isn't a wild frenzy, but a balanced thaw creating real opportunities for families eyeing townhomes in Dana Point or single-family gems in Aliso Viejo.
Attached Homes Surge, Detached Homes Hold Firm
Sales are accelerating, led by a whopping 41.4% year-over-year jump in attached homes like condos and townhomes. These draw first-time buyers and empty-nesters to more approachable prices in bustling spots like Irvine and Laguna Niguel. In Mission Viejo, lake-adjacent townhomes shine for their low-maintenance vibe and easy access to trails and shops—perfect for folks ditching high-upkeep yards.
Detached single-family homes? They're up a steady 1.6% in sales, with families locking in on yards, privacy, and stellar schools in Lake Forest or gated Mission Viejo enclaves. Relocators from pricier coastal areas keep demand robust here, stabilizing values even as the market softens slightly elsewhere. This divide means attached properties offer buyer leverage right now, while prime detached listings in top zip codes still fly off the shelf.
Median prices across Orange County hover around $1.1M-$1.2M overall, with Anaheim Hills at $1.1M-$1.15M and citywide Anaheim nearer $922K-$955K—gains of 3.7% to 5.4% signaling controlled growth, not a boom. Coastal luxury medians near $5.9M show pockets of strength, but mid-range homes benefit from seller concessions like price cuts on 41% of listings.
Inventory Rises, Buyers Gain Negotiation Power
Countywide inventory climbed 13% mid-January, reaching levels unseen since 2020, though still at 2.6-3 months' supply—below the balanced 5-6 months. Irvine's active listings hit 684, a 31.61% yearly surge, while days on market stretched to 41 days (up 29.2%). Expected market time? Around 101 days this month, giving buyers breathing room before the typical mid-March demand spike that could slash it by 22 days like last year.
In Huntington Beach and South Coast Metro, supply edges up amid steady rental occupancy in the mid-90s and low-single-digit rent growth, keeping pressure on for-sale stock. Mission Viejo sellers should list now to capture this pre-spring wave; buyers, inventory peaks offer choices in family neighborhoods before multiples return on top properties. The "lock-in effect" lingers—those 2-3% rates from 2020-2021 hold many put—but life moves force gradual releases.
Lower Rates Unlock Demand and Affordability
The game-changer: rates easing to 6-6.5%, down a point from peaks, letting buyers qualify for bigger budgets. Activity rose 2% in the past two weeks, with forecasts holding rates above 6% through 2026—enough for a thaw, not a flood. Statewide, single-family sales may tick up 2%, medians 3.6%, mirroring Orange County's measured strength.
Affordability inches better for first-timers in Yorba Linda townhomes or upsizers in Newport, though coastal "rent-first" mindsets persist. Orange County's tourism, tech, healthcare, and education jobs fuel this, with low 4.5% rental vacancy underscoring demand. In premium school zones like Anaheim Hills' Canyon High or Mission Viejo's top-rated districts, families pay up for quality—homes there sell 8% over asking when priced right.
Infrastructure and Developments Boost Long-Term Appeal
These trends get amplified by key projects. Irvine's Great Park adds multifamily to ease single-family strain, while the OC Streetcar extension ties LAX to Tustin and Irvine, supercharging eastern commutes. Mission Viejo's Oso Parkway improvements cut traffic to Irvine tech hubs, a huge draw for hybrid workers and families.
South Coast Metro stabilizes with 5.9-6.3% rates, Laguna Niguel estates lure multi-gen buyers, and Anaheim Hills leverages its safety and amenities for a 15-20% premium over citywide. Multiple offers hit best homes, investors snag fixers, but overpriced listings sit—41% see cuts. Forecasts point to 2-4% appreciation, with Mission Viejo's low-turnover hills outperforming thanks to these upgrades.
This Friday reminds us: short-term buyer edge from inventory and rates, but sellers win long-term on OC's vibrancy. From Huntington Beach stability to Mission Viejo charm, 2026 favors the prepared. Buyers, shop this window; sellers, price sharp and highlight lifestyle perks.
