If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to buy in Orange County, that moment is happening right now. The market has shifted in your favor, and the window won't stay open forever.
Here's what's changed: mortgage rates have fallen a full percentage point from where they were a year ago and are hovering around 6% to 6.5%.[3][4] Inventory jumped 13% in mid-January—the highest level since 2020.[1][4] Buyer competition remains lighter than it will be in a few weeks. And homes are spending 41 days on the market on average, giving you genuine negotiating leverage.[1][2]
For most of the past two years, Orange County real estate felt like a sprint. Bidding wars were common. Homes sold in days. Prices climbed double digits year after year. That era is over, and what's replacing it is a more balanced, buyer-friendly environment—but only temporarily.
Why Now Matters: The Spring Surge Is Coming
Historically, Orange County buyer demand jumps between 50% and nearly 70% between mid-January and mid-March.[3] Last year, demand surged nearly 70% during that window.[4] That pattern is already unfolding. Buyers who took a holiday break are returning to the market all at once, but inventory is rising much more slowly than demand will over the next six weeks.[4]
What does that mean for you? Right now, you're shopping in a less competitive environment. Once February transitions into March, that advantage disappears fast. Sellers will have their pick of offers. Terms tighten. Pricing power shifts. The best time to move is before that happens.
The Rate Reality: Your Affordability Window
A full percentage point drop in mortgage rates isn't trivial—it translates to real monthly savings. If you've been waiting for rates to fall, they have.[3][4] And while no one can predict where rates go next, the current environment is materially better than it was in early 2025.
For first-time buyers, this matters enormously. The Orange County market has historically felt out of reach for many households, but affordability is improving. Attached homes—condos, townhouses, and duplexes—saw a 41.4% surge in sales year-over-year, driven largely by buyers seeking more accessible price points.[1][2] If you've been priced out of single-family homes, the attached market is worth serious attention right now.
For move-up buyers, the calculus has changed too. You're not competing against 10 other offers. Homes are on the market longer, which means you can be selective. Inspections and appraisals actually happen. You have leverage in negotiation.
What the Market Data Actually Tells You
Median prices for detached homes in Orange County sit at $1.4 million, down 5.7% year-over-year.[1][2] That decline reflects a market cooling from a period of explosive growth to something more sustainable. It's not a crash—it's a recalibration. And it means you're not buying into rapid appreciation; you're buying for stability and the fundamentals that make Orange County desirable: schools, jobs, weather, and community.
Inventory is still below historical norms, even with the 13% jump.[1][4] This isn't a buyer's market in the traditional sense. It's a fairer market. You have choices you didn't have a year ago, but you're not drowning in options. That balance is what makes February special.
Your Action Plan: Three Steps to Move Now
Step One: Get Pre-Approved
If you haven't already, lock in a mortgage pre-approval this week. Rates are favorable, and pre-approval puts you in a position to act when you find the right home. Don't wait until you've found a property.
Step Two: Clarify Your Target
Are you looking at single-family detached homes or attached properties? The attached market is hotter right now, which can mean faster sales and more competition in that segment. Know which segment fits your needs and budget.
Step Three: Work with Someone Who Understands the Local Market
Orange County is diverse—Mission Viejo, Newport Beach, Irvine, Laguna Niguel, and Huntington Beach are vastly different markets within the same county. A real estate professional who knows your specific community can identify homes before they hit peak competition and negotiate terms that matter to your situation.
The Quiet Phase Is Ending
The market isn't overheated. It's not a frenzy. But it is waking up, and that window of calm, buyer-friendly conditions is closing fast. Historically, once demand surges into late February and March, leverage shifts quickly.[4] Buyers who act early typically get better pricing, better terms, and more choice.
If you've been thinking about buying in Orange County, February 2026 is the moment. Rates are lower. Inventory is higher. Competition is still light. After mid-March, all three of those advantages compress.
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